“Increase your bets when you are confident and scale down your positions when you don’t have conviction.”

If we carry this line of argument to its logical conclusion, the meaning of life consists of the flaws in one’s conceptions and what one does about them. Life can be seen as a fertile fallacy.

Every bubble has two components: something – some real trend, and a misconception about that trend.

I’m only rich because I know when I’m wrong.

Start by assuming the market is always wrong, so if you copy everybody else on Wall Street, you’re doomed to do poorly.

The trouble with institutional investors is that their performance is usually measured relative to their peer group and not by an absolute yardstick. This makes them trend followers by definition.

Political debate is more interested in manipulating the truth, than finding the truth.

Short term volatility is greatest at turning points and diminishes as a trend becomes established.

An open society is a society which allows its members the greatest possible degree of freedom in pursuing their interests compatible with the interests of others.

Unfortunately, the more complex the system, the greater the room for error.

The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.

Every bubble consists of a trend that can be observed in the real world and a misconception relating to that trend. The two elements interact with each other in a reflexive manner.

If we care about universal principles such as freedom, democracy and the rule of law, we cannot leave them to the care of market forces; we must establish some other institutions to safeguard them.

Market prices are always wrong in the sense that they present a biased view of the future.

I am not well qualified to criticize the theory of rational expectations and the efficient market hypothesis because as a market participant I considered them so unrealistic that I never bothered to study them.

Most of the poverty and misery in the world is due to bad government, lack of democracy, weak states, internal strife, and so on.

My approach works not by making valid predictions but by allowing me to correct false ones.