Making an investment decision is like formulating a scientific hypothesis and submitting it to a practical test.
GEORGE SOROSIf investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.
More George Soros Quotes
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When a long-term trend loses it’s momentum, short-term volatility tends to rise. It is easy to see why that should be so: the trend-following crowd is disoriented.
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Market prices are always wrong in the sense that they present a biased view of the future.
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As I discovered, there is a great deal of similarity between a boom-bust process in the financial markets and the rise and fall of the Soviet system.
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The hardest thing to judge is what level of risk is safe.
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American supremacy is the greatest threat to the world today.
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Every bubble has two components: something – some real trend, and a misconception about that trend.
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I’m only rich because I know when I’m wrong.
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I am not well qualified to criticize the theory of rational expectations and the efficient market hypothesis because as a market participant I considered them so unrealistic that I never bothered to study them.
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Find the trend whose premise is false, and bet against it.
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Increase your bets when you are confident and scale down your positions when you don’t have conviction.
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The strength of this country lies in the Declaration of Independence and the Bill of Rights and the freedom of speech and thought.
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Revolutions usually start with enthusiasm and end in tears.
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If I had to sum up my practical skills, I would use one word: survival. And operating a hedge fund utilized my training in survival to the fullest.
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Start by assuming the market is always wrong, so if you copy everybody else on Wall Street, you’re doomed to do poorly.
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Every bubble consists of a trend that can be observed in the real world and a misconception relating to that trend. The two elements interact with each other in a reflexive manner.
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Most of the poverty and misery in the world is due to bad government, lack of democracy, weak states, internal strife, and so on.
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I’m only rich because I know when I’m wrong…I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes.
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If we carry this line of argument to its logical conclusion, the meaning of life consists of the flaws in one’s conceptions and what one does about them. Life can be seen as a fertile fallacy.
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The main difference between me and other people who have amassed this kind of money is that I am primarily interested in ideas, and I don’t have much personal use for money.
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I’m not better than the next trader, just quicker at admitting my mistakes and moving on to the next opportunity.
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Fundamental analysis seeks to establish how underlying values are reflected in stock prices, whereas the theory of reflexivity shows how stock prices can influence underlying values.
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It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.
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The reality is that financial markets are self-destabilizing; occasionally they tend toward disequilibrium, not equilibrium.
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When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold.
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There is very little difference between speculation and investment. The only difference is basically that investments are successful speculations because if you successfully anticipate the future you make a speculative profit.
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My approach works not by making valid predictions but by allowing me to correct false ones.
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