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We have never in human history seen a run-up in credit of the kind we have just witnessed in advanced economies since 1970.

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Advance Credit Economic History Human Witness

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Marilyn Monroe Paulo Coelho Abraham Lincoln C. S. Lewis Khalil Gibran Charlie Chaplin Gautama Buddha Isaac Newton

Then our economic future will be very different from our recent past.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Different Economic Future Past Recent
How we ended up there and how we got to where we are today, without having some basic.
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Basic End Got How Some Today Where
We may end up with a world based more on equity than debt, or more on market debt instruments than bank intermediation; but how and why we get there is a mystery.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Based Debt End Equity Instrument Intermediate Market More Mystery
It’s just very hard to teach a class of students about what has happened in the Global Financial Crisis.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Class Crisis Finance Global Happen Hard Student Very
Macroeconomic stability will be more elusive and that will affect all of our lives: from the risks many will face in childhood.
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Childhood Economic Effect Face Live Macro Our Risk Stable
And we have never observed modern finance-capitalist systems operating over a sustained period at this kind of credit-to-GDP leverage ratio.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Capitalist Credit Finance GDP Leverage Modern Observe Operate Period
1000 percent or more of GDP, so that every economy starts to have financial systems that resemble recent cases like Switzerland, Ireland, Iceland, or Cyprus. That might be a very fragile world to live in.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Country Economy Financial Fragile Live More Percent System World
A possibility is that we see more and more leverage, and credit-to-GDP ratios rise once more to even higher levels.
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Credit Higher Level Leverage More Possible Ratiom Gdp
Since then they have occurred more often, and 2008 was the most damaging of them all to date.
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Damage Date More Most Occur Since
To the security of employment at working age, to the challenge of accumulating for retirement.
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Accumulate Challenge Employment Retirement Security Work
We have never in human history seen a run-up in credit of the kind we have just witnessed in advanced economies since 1970.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Advance Credit Economic History Human Witness
Non-trivial understanding of the financial sector, credit, and the banking system.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Bank Credit Financial Non Sector System Trivial Understanding
Absent significant regulatory or tax changes, and a sharp transition could be disruptive.
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Absent Change Disruptive Regulatory Sharp Significant Transition
In the immediate postwar era, financial crises in advanced countries were rare events, and before 1970 did not happen at all.
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Advance All Before Country Era Event Financial Happen Immediate
Eventually the banking systems of all advanced economies reach magnitudes of 500 percent,
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Advance All Bank Economic Eventually Magnitude Percent Raech System
Furthermore, this pattern is seen across all the advanced economies, and isn’t just a feature of some special subset (e.g. the Anglo-Saxons).
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Across Advance Economic Pattern Special Subset

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