More financial instability will introduce more uncertainty all down the line.
ALAN M. TAYLOR
Absent significant regulatory or tax changes, and a sharp transition could be disruptive.
More Alan M. Taylor Quotes
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More financial instability will introduce more uncertainty all down the line.
ALAN M. TAYLOR -
Non-trivial understanding of the financial sector, credit, and the banking system.
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To the security of employment at working age, to the challenge of accumulating for retirement.
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It’s just very hard to teach a class of students about what has happened in the Global Financial Crisis.
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Eventually the banking systems of all advanced economies reach magnitudes of 500 percent,
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Since then they have occurred more often, and 2008 was the most damaging of them all to date.
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And we have never observed modern finance-capitalist systems operating over a sustained period at this kind of credit-to-GDP leverage ratio.
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A possibility is that we see more and more leverage, and credit-to-GDP ratios rise once more to even higher levels.
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If we have moved back to a regime of regular financial crises – like the one we had from the 1870s to the 1930s.
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The basic aggregate measure of gearing or leverage is telling us that today’s advanced economies’ operating systems are more heavily dependent on private sector credit than anything we have ever seen before.
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In the immediate postwar era, financial crises in advanced countries were rare events, and before 1970 did not happen at all.
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Then our economic future will be very different from our recent past.
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Furthermore, this pattern is seen across all the advanced economies, and isn’t just a feature of some special subset (e.g. the Anglo-Saxons).
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Absent significant regulatory or tax changes, and a sharp transition could be disruptive.
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We may end up with a world based more on equity than debt, or more on market debt instruments than bank intermediation; but how and why we get there is a mystery.
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How we ended up there and how we got to where we are today, without having some basic.
ALAN M. TAYLOR