We have never in human history seen a run-up in credit of the kind we have just witnessed in advanced economies since 1970.
ALAN M. TAYLORIn the immediate postwar era, financial crises in advanced countries were rare events, and before 1970 did not happen at all.
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If we have moved back to a regime of regular financial crises – like the one we had from the 1870s to the 1930s.
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Furthermore, this pattern is seen across all the advanced economies, and isn’t just a feature of some special subset (e.g. the Anglo-Saxons).
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In the immediate postwar era, financial crises in advanced countries were rare events, and before 1970 did not happen at all.
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And we have never observed modern finance-capitalist systems operating over a sustained period at this kind of credit-to-GDP leverage ratio.
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It’s just very hard to teach a class of students about what has happened in the Global Financial Crisis.
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Non-trivial understanding of the financial sector, credit, and the banking system.
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More financial instability will introduce more uncertainty all down the line.
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Since then they have occurred more often, and 2008 was the most damaging of them all to date.
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A possibility is that we see more and more leverage, and credit-to-GDP ratios rise once more to even higher levels.
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How we ended up there and how we got to where we are today, without having some basic.
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Absent significant regulatory or tax changes, and a sharp transition could be disruptive.
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The basic aggregate measure of gearing or leverage is telling us that today’s advanced economies’ operating systems are more heavily dependent on private sector credit than anything we have ever seen before.
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To the security of employment at working age, to the challenge of accumulating for retirement.
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Then our economic future will be very different from our recent past.
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Macroeconomic stability will be more elusive and that will affect all of our lives: from the risks many will face in childhood.
ALAN M. TAYLOR