People dont realize that we cannot forecast the future. What we can do is have probabilities of what causes what, but thats as far as we go. And Ive had a very successful career as a forecaster, starting in 1948 forward.
ALAN GREENSPANDeficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth.If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said.
More Alan Greenspan Quotes
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The use of a growing array of derivatives and the related application of more-sophisticated approaches to measuring and managing risk are key factors underpinning the greater resilience of our largest financial institutions…
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The process of innovation is, of course, never ending.
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Well, you probably will always believe there should be laws against fraud, and I don’t think there is any need for a law against fraud.
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It is decidedly not true that “nice guys finish last,” as that highly original American baseball philosopher, Leo Durocher, was alleged to have said.
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The gut-feel of the 55-year old trader is more important than the mathematical elegance of the 25-year old genius.
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If we are dealing with psychology, then the thermometers one uses to measure it have an effect.
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Excessive optimism shows the seeds of its own reversal in the form of imbalances that tend to grow over time.
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Skilled shortages in America exist because we are shielding our skilled labor force from world competition. [Visa quotas] have been substituted for the wage pricing mechanism.
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Some succeed for a time. But while there may occasionally be mis-configurations among market prices that allow abnormal returns, they do not persist.
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The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.
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It has been my experience that competency in mathematics, both in numerical manipulations and in understanding its conceptual foundations.
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This decade is strewn with examples of bright people who thought they built a better mousetrap that could consistently extract abnormal returns from the financial markets.
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Enhances a person’s ability to handle the more ambiguous and qualitative relationships that dominate our day-to-day financial decision-making
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Whatever you tax you get less of.
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We may be in a rapidly evolving international financial system with all the bells and whistles of the so-called new economy. But the old-economy rules of prudence are as formidable as ever. We violate them at our own peril.
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Now, I only play very occasionally, and in fact, more piano than clarinet or sax.
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The economy is turning, and credit comes in with a lag, .. To the extent that a number of small firms are finding it difficult to get the credit they need at a price they can afford, that’s likely to change for the better.
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Even though some down payments are borrowed, it would take a large, and historically most unusual, fall in home prices to wipe out a significant part of home equity.
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Without calling the overall national issue a bubble, it’s pretty clear that it’s an unsustainable underlying pattern.
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I was a good amateur but only an average professional. I soon realized that there was a limit to how far I could rise in the music business, so I left the band and enrolled at New York University.
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I do not deny that many appear to have succeeded in a material way by cutting corners and by manipulating associates, both in their professional and in their personal lives.
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It seems superfluous to constrain trading in some of the newer derivatives and other innovative financial contracts of the past decade.
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If we were to do that we would increase the supply of skilled workers that our schools have been unable to create and as a consequence of that we would lower the average wage of skills and reduce the degree of income inequality in this country.
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If we allow terrorism to undermine our freedom of action, we could reverse at least part of the palpable gains achieved by postwar globalization. It is incumbent upon us not to allow that to happen.
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Productivity is notoriously difficult to predict.
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If all currencies are moving up or down together, the question is: relative to what? Gold is the canary in the coal mine.
ALAN GREENSPAN