My conceptual framework, which basically emphasizes the importance of misconceptions, makes me extremely critical of my own decisions. I know that I am bound to be wrong, and therefore am more likely to correct my own mistakes.
GEORGE SOROSStock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception.
More George Soros Quotes
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Revolutions usually start with enthusiasm and end in tears.
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The prevailing wisdom is that markets are always right. I take the opposite position. I assume that markets are always wrong.
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Short term volatility is greatest at turning points and diminishes as a trend becomes established.
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When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold.
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The global crisis is caused by pathologies inherent in the global financial system itself.
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My main concern is with the world order.
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Law has become a business. Health care has become a business. Unfortunately, politics has also become a business. That really undermines society.
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American supremacy is the greatest threat to the world today.
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The trouble with institutional investors is that their performance is usually measured relative to their peer group and not by an absolute yardstick. This makes them trend followers by definition.
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If the bubbles contain a misconception, as they always do, then it can’t be maintained forever.
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Making an investment decision is like formulating a scientific hypothesis and submitting it to a practical test.
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Increase your bets when you are confident and scale down your positions when you don’t have conviction.
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Investors operate with limited funds and intelligence, they do not need to know everything. As long as they understand something better than others, they have an edge.
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Fundamental analysis seeks to establish how underlying values are reflected in stock prices, whereas the theory of reflexivity shows how stock prices can influence underlying values.
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Start by assuming the market is always wrong, so if you copy everybody else on Wall Street, you’re doomed to do poorly.
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Market prices are always wrong in the sense that they present a biased view of the future.
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I’m not better than the next trader, just quicker at admitting my mistakes and moving on to the next opportunity.
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There is no point in being confident and having a small position.
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Every bubble consists of a trend that can be observed in the real world and a misconception relating to that trend. The two elements interact with each other in a reflexive manner.
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The hardest thing to judge is what level of risk is safe.
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I fancied myself as some kind of god or an economic reformer like Keynes.
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What works for Germany can’t work for the rest of Europe: No country can run a chronic surplus without others running deficits.
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There is very little difference between speculation and investment. The only difference is basically that investments are successful speculations because if you successfully anticipate the future you make a speculative profit.
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Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception.
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The world order needs a major overhaul.
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The sovereignty of states must be subordinated to international law and international institutions.
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