We have never in human history seen a run-up in credit of the kind we have just witnessed in advanced economies since 1970.
ALAN M. TAYLORFurthermore, this pattern is seen across all the advanced economies, and isn’t just a feature of some special subset (e.g. the Anglo-Saxons).
More Alan M. Taylor Quotes
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We may end up with a world based more on equity than debt, or more on market debt instruments than bank intermediation; but how and why we get there is a mystery.
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Eventually the banking systems of all advanced economies reach magnitudes of 500 percent,
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In the immediate postwar era, financial crises in advanced countries were rare events, and before 1970 did not happen at all.
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Then our economic future will be very different from our recent past.
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Non-trivial understanding of the financial sector, credit, and the banking system.
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Macroeconomic stability will be more elusive and that will affect all of our lives: from the risks many will face in childhood.
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It’s just very hard to teach a class of students about what has happened in the Global Financial Crisis.
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More financial instability will introduce more uncertainty all down the line.
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How we ended up there and how we got to where we are today, without having some basic.
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If we have moved back to a regime of regular financial crises – like the one we had from the 1870s to the 1930s.
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1000 percent or more of GDP, so that every economy starts to have financial systems that resemble recent cases like Switzerland, Ireland, Iceland, or Cyprus. That might be a very fragile world to live in.
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Absent significant regulatory or tax changes, and a sharp transition could be disruptive.
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And we have never observed modern finance-capitalist systems operating over a sustained period at this kind of credit-to-GDP leverage ratio.
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To the security of employment at working age, to the challenge of accumulating for retirement.
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A possibility is that we see more and more leverage, and credit-to-GDP ratios rise once more to even higher levels.
ALAN M. TAYLOR