Every bubble consists of a trend that can be observed in the real world and a misconception relating to that trend. The two elements interact with each other in a reflexive manner.
GEORGE SOROSWell, you know, I was a human being before I became a businessman.
More George Soros Quotes
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I am not well qualified to criticize the theory of rational expectations and the efficient market hypothesis because as a market participant I considered them so unrealistic that I never bothered to study them.
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Short term volatility is greatest at turning points and diminishes as a trend becomes established.
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I’m only rich because I know when I’m wrong.
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My sense of insecurity keeps me alert, always ready to correct my errors.
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Unfortunately, the more complex the system, the greater the room for error.
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There is very little difference between speculation and investment. The only difference is basically that investments are successful speculations because if you successfully anticipate the future you make a speculative profit.
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Discount the obvious, bet on the unexpected.
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The prevailing wisdom is that markets are always right. I take the opposite position. I assume that markets are always wrong.
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Markets can influence the events that they anticipate.
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No individual anonymous participant can influence the prices and therefore you really can speculate in the market without paying attention to morality. That’s one of the positive features of markets. That’s why they function.
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The main enemy of the open society, I believe, is no longer the communist but the capitalist threat.
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Find the trend whose premise is false, and bet against it.
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Increase your bets when you are confident and scale down your positions when you don’t have conviction.
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I don’t panic. The same thing applies to me as to everybody else, so I’m given to euphoria and despair. And I would say that I basically have survived by recognizing my mistakes.
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In politics, manipulating reality can take presidence over finding reality.
GEORGE SOROS