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While holding the eurozone together will be costly and difficult and painful for the politicians, breaking it up will be even more costly and more difficult.

Barry Eichengreen

Across the continent, political divisions are deepening. For all of these reasons, the specter of a euro zone collapse has not been dispatched.
BARRY EICHENGREEN

Division Political Reason
For those unfortunate enough to experience it, long-term unemployment – now, as in the 1930s – is a tragedy. And, for society as a whole, there is the danger that the productive capacity of a significant portion of the labour force will be impaired.
BARRY EICHENGREEN

Long Tragedy Unemployment
As for the single market, the E.U.’s landmark achievement, there is no question that a euro zone breakup would severely disrupt its operation in the short run.
BARRY EICHENGREEN

Achievement Breakup Running
The 1992 crisis proved that the existing system was unstable. Not moving forward to the euro would have set up Europe for even more disruptive crises.
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Country Moving Prove Unstable
Political union means transferring the prerogatives of national legislatures to the European parliament, which would then decide how to structure Europe’s fiscal, banking, and monetary union.
BARRY EICHENGREEN

Country Mean Political
Why was there so much work-sharing in the 1930s? One reason is that government pushed for it. In his memoirs, President Herbert Hoover estimated that as many as two million workers avoided unemployment as a result of his efforts to promote work-sharing.
BARRY EICHENGREEN

Effort Government Push
More than the Big Mac, Coca Cola, or Levi’s 501 jeans, the dollar is surely the United States’ signature export.
BARRY EICHENGREEN

Country Jeans People Person Signatures United States
While holding the eurozone together will be costly and difficult and painful for the politicians, breaking it up will be even more costly and more difficult.
BARRY EICHENGREEN

Painful Politician Together
The consequences of a collapse would not be pretty. Whichever country precipitated it – Germany by threatening to abandon the euro, or Greece or Spain by actually doing so – would trigger economic chaos and incur its neighbours’ wrath.
BARRY EICHENGREEN

Country Spain Wrath
The 24% unemployment reached at the depths of the Great Depression was no picnic.
BARRY EICHENGREEN

Depth Picnic Unemployment
Southern Europe has not done enough to enhance its competitiveness, while northern Europe has not done enough to boost demand. Debt burdens remain crushing, and Europe’s economy remains unable to grow.
BARRY EICHENGREEN

Crush Europe Southern

While holding the eurozone together will be costly and difficult and painful for the politicians, breaking it up will be even more costly and more difficult.

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While holding the eurozone together will be costly and difficult and painful for the politicians, breaking it up will be even more costly and more difficult.

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