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People dont realize that we cannot forecast the future. What we can do is have probabilities of what causes what, but thats as far as we go. And Ive had a very successful career as a forecaster, starting in 1948 forward.

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The gut-feel of the 55-year old trader is more important than the mathematical elegance of the 25-year old genius.
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The number one problem in today’s generation and economy is the lack of financial literacy.
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I cannot conceive of a politically feasible solution to this problem which will overdo cutting the deficit, where overdoing means harming the economy. It might be technically possible, but it is not realistic.
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Improvements in lending practices driven by information technology have enabled lenders to reach out to households with previously unrecognized borrowing capacities.
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The arts develop skills and habits of mind that are important for workers in the new economy of ideas.
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Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets.
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Whatever you tax you get less of.
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Without the triggers, that tax cut is irreponsible fiscal policy. Eventually, I think that will be the consensus view.
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I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interests of organisations, specifically banks and others, were such that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders and their equity in the firms.
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Protectionism will do little to create jobs and if foreigners retaliate, we will surely lose jobs.
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Excessive optimism sows the seeds of its own reversal.
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Then fear hits, and it comes down very sharply. When I started to look at that.
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There’s an interesting question here because if the gold price broke in that context, the thermometer would not be just a measuring tool. It would basically affect the underlying psychology.
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Political decisions are never random and will always lose out to innovative alternatives.
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It has been my experience that competency in mathematics, both in numerical manipulations and in understanding its conceptual foundations.
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