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No matter how skillful the trading scheme, over the long haul, abnormal returns are sustained only through abnormal exposure to risk.

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Abnormal Exposure Haul Long Matter No Return Scheme Skillful Sustain Trade

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Marilyn Monroe Paulo Coelho Abraham Lincoln C. S. Lewis Khalil Gibran Charlie Chaplin Gautama Buddha Isaac Newton

They then need to reach a judgment about the probabilities, costs, and benefits of the various possible outcomes under alternative choices for policy.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Alternative Benefit Choice Judgement Policy Probability
Remember what we’re looking at. Gold is a currency. It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency, that no fiat currency, including the dollar, can match.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Currency Dollar Evidence Gold Look Premier Remember Still
Without the triggers, that tax cut is irreponsible fiscal policy. Eventually, I think that will be the consensus view.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Consensus Cut Fiscal Irresponsible Policy Tax Trigger View
Corruption, embezzlement, fraud, these are all characteristics which exist everywhere.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Characteristics Corruption Embezzlement Everywhere Exist Regrettably
I was raising the question on the side with Governor Mullins of what would happen if the Treasury sold a little gold in this market.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Gold Governor Happen Little Market Question Raise Treasury
Any onset of increased investor caution elevates risk premiums and, as a consequence, lowers asset values and promotes the liquidation of the debt that supported higher asset prices.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Asset Caution Consequence Debt Elevate Increase Investor Lowe Onset Premium Price Risk Value
Many of those who purchased their residence more than a year ago have equity buffers in their homes adequate to withstand any price decline other than a very deep one.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Adequate Ago Buffer Decline Deep Home One Piece Purchase Residence Year
Developing protectionism regarding trade and our reluctance to place fiscal policy on a more sustainable path are threatening what may well be our most valued policy asset.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Develop Fiscal Path Place Policy Protection Regard Reluctance Sustainable Trade
How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?
ALAN GREENSPAN

Escalate Exuberance Irrational Unduly Value
American and British authorities were also concerned about violence in an area that harbors a resource indispensable for the functioning of the word economy.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Country Economy Function Harbor Violence World
We as central bankers need not be concerned if a collapsing financial asset bubble does not threaten to impair the real economy, its production, jobs and price stability.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Asset Banker Bubble Central Collapse Concern Do Economy Financial Threaten
The use of a growing array of derivatives and the related application of more-sophisticated approaches to measuring and managing risk are key factors underpinning the greater resilience of our largest financial institutions…
ALAN GREENSPAN

Application Approach Derivative Grow More Relate Sophisticate Use
Credit-default swaps, I think, have serious problems associated with them.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Associate Credit Default Problem Serious Swap
Since I’ve become a central banker, I’ve learned to mumble with great incoherence.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Banker Become Central Incoherence Member
Need to consider not only the most likely future path for the economy but also the distribution of possible outcomes about that path.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Consider Distribution Economy Future Likely Outcome Path Possible
Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Asset Clearly Earning Higher Imply Inflation Less Lower Premium Risk Stock Sustain

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