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Need to consider not only the most likely future path for the economy but also the distribution of possible outcomes about that path.

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Consider Distribution Economy Future Likely Outcome Path Possible

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Marilyn Monroe Paulo Coelho Abraham Lincoln C. S. Lewis Khalil Gibran Charlie Chaplin Gautama Buddha Isaac Newton

Recent episodes in which Fed officials hinted at a shift toward higher interest rates have unleashed significant volatility in markets.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Episode Higher Interest Market Official Rate Recent Toward Unleash Volatility
It seems superfluous to constrain trading in some of the newer derivatives and other innovative financial contracts of the past decade.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Constrain Contract Derivate Financial Innovative Newer Seem Some Superfluous Trade
The gut-feel of the 55-year old trader is more important than the mathematical elegance of the 25-year old genius.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Elegance Feel Generation Gut Important Mathematical More Old Trader Year
I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Acknowledge Everyone Inconvenient Know Oil Political Saddened
Even though some down payments are borrowed, it would take a large, and historically most unusual, fall in home prices to wipe out a significant part of home equity.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Borrow Down Equity Historical Payment Significant Some Unusual Wipe
A decline in the national housing price level would need to be substantial to trigger a significant rise in foreclosures, because the vast majority of homeowners have built up substantial equity in their homes despite large mortgage.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Bank Decline Foreclosure Housing Level National Need Significant Substantial Trigger
If we are dealing with psychology, then the thermometers one uses to measure it have an effect.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Deal Effect Measure Psychology Thermometer Use
And the percentage changes in wage rates would be the same for all job grades.
ALAN GREENSPAN

All Change Job Percentage Rate Right Same Wage
Anyone willing to do what is required to become president of the United States is thereby barred from taking that office. I’m only half joking
ALAN GREENSPAN

Anyone Barred Country President Will Required
It keeps interest rates lower than they otherwise would be and frees savings to finance increases in the capital stock, thereby boosting productivity and real incomes.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Boost Finance Free Income Increase Interest Keep Lower Productive Rate Real Saving
If I seem unduly clear to you, you must have misunderstood what I said.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Clear Misunderstood Must Said Seen Unduly
Unfortunately, Senator, nobody knows where the next innovative idea is coming from.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Come Idea Innovative Nobody Senator Unfortunately
Excessive optimism shows the seeds of its own reversal in the form of imbalances that tend to grow over time.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Excessive Grow Over Own Reversal Seed Show Time
Rules cannot take the place of character.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Character Place Rule
The worst have failed; investors no longer fund them and are not likely to in the future.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Fail Future Investor Likely Longer Worst
In the process we have created [a] privileged elite whose incomes are being supported at non-competitively high levels by immigration quotas on skilled professionals.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Competitively Immigration Income Level Process Profession Quota Support

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