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How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?

Alan Greenspan

The only effective regulation lies in the propensity of customers to choose alternatives, of investors to move their funds elsewhere and of labour to acquire technical skills’.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Chosen Customer Effective Elsewhere Investor Propensity Skill Technical
No one has ever eliminated any of that stuff.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Eliminate No One Stuff
I came to a stark realization: chronic surpluses could be almost as destabilizing as chronic deficits.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Almost Came Deficit Destabilize Chronic Realization Stark Surplus
While these tendencies were no doubt in train in the “old,” pre-1990s economy, they accelerated over the past decade as a number of technologies with their roots in the cumulative innovations of the past half-century began to yield dramatic economic returns.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Accelerate Circumstance Dramatic Economic Innovation Offer Return Tendency Train
It is regrettably the way human nature functions, whether we like it or not. What successful economies do is keep it to a minimum.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Function Human Keep Minimum Nature Regrettably Successful
What we have found over the years in the marketplace is that derivatives have been an extraordinarily useful vehicle to transfer risk from those who shouldn’t be taking it to those who are willing to and are capable of doing so.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Derivative Extraordinary Marketplace Over Useful Year
The probability of ten consecutive heads is 0.1 percent; thus, when you have millions of coin tossers, or investors, in the end there will be thousands of very successful practitioners of coin tossing, or stock picking.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Coin Consecutive Head Investor Million Percent Pick Probably Stock Ten Tosser
I have one other issue I’d like to throw on the table. I hesitate to do it, but let me tell you some of the issues that are involved here.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Hesitate Issue Other Some Table Throw
I guess I should warn you, if I turn out to be particularly clear, you’ve probably misunderstood what I’ve said.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Clear Guess Out Particular Turn Warn You
Any informed borrower is simply less vulnerable to fraud and abuse.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Abuse Borrower Fraud Inform Less Simply Vulnerable
It is this superlatively moral system that the welfare statists propose to improve upon by means of preventative law, snooping bureaucrats, and the chronic goad of fear.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Goad Growth Improve Mean Preventative Snoop Statics System
Some succeed for a time. But while there may occasionally be mis-configurations among market prices that allow abnormal returns, they do not persist.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Among Configuration Market Occasionally Price Priest Some Succeed
I’m a plain soap kind of guy.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Guy Kind Plain Soap
I’m a better economist than I was a sax player.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Better Economist Player
Many of those who purchased their residence more than a year ago have equity buffers in their homes adequate to withstand any price decline other than a very deep one.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Adequate Ago Buffer Decline Deep Home One Piece Purchase Residence Year
Given our inevitably incomplete knowledge about key structural aspects of our ever-changing economy and the sometimes asymmetric costs or benefits of particular outcomes, a central bank.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Aspect Bank Change Economy Ever Give Incomplete Inevitably Knowledge Outcome Particular Sometimes Structural

How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?

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How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?

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