The market can move for irrational reasons, and you have to be prepared for that, … you need to make big bets when the odds are in your favor — not big enough to ruin you, but big enough to make a difference.
Whether a tops-down or bottoms-up investor in bonds, stocks, or private equity, the standard analysis tends to judge an investor or his firm on the basis of how the bullish or bearish aspects of the cycle were managed.
Imperceptibly, the developed world’s manufacturing base was gradually eroding and being replaced by securitized finance that destroyed itself and nearly its economies in 2008.
Why is it possible to rescue S&L buccaneers in the early ’90s and provide guidance to levered Wall Street investment bankers during the 1998 long-term capital management crisis, yet throw 2 million homeowners to the wolves in 2007?
When you’re underperforming the index, you go home at night and cry in your beer. It’s not fun, but who said this business should be fun. We’re too well paid to hang our heads and say boo hoo.
Accountants, machinists, medical technicians, even software writers that write the software for “machines” are being displaced without upscaled replacement jobs.
Bernanke and company are trying to reflate the economy with almost stated objective of inflation at 2 percent and higher in order to provide some type of safety margin for a future recession. That’s where they want to go.
With all this consumer debt, business debt, government debt, smaller movements in interest rates have a magnified effect. a small movement can tip the boat.
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