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The basic aggregate measure of gearing or leverage is telling us that today’s advanced economies’ operating systems are more heavily dependent on private sector credit than anything we have ever seen before.

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Aggregate Credit Depend Economic Measure Private Sector System Tell Today

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1000 percent or more of GDP, so that every economy starts to have financial systems that resemble recent cases like Switzerland, Ireland, Iceland, or Cyprus. That might be a very fragile world to live in.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Country Economy Financial Fragile Live More Percent System World
Since then they have occurred more often, and 2008 was the most damaging of them all to date.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Damage Date More Most Occur Since
To the security of employment at working age, to the challenge of accumulating for retirement.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Accumulate Challenge Employment Retirement Security Work
Furthermore, this pattern is seen across all the advanced economies, and isn’t just a feature of some special subset (e.g. the Anglo-Saxons).
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Across Advance Economic Pattern Special Subset
We have never in human history seen a run-up in credit of the kind we have just witnessed in advanced economies since 1970.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Advance Credit Economic History Human Witness
We may end up with a world based more on equity than debt, or more on market debt instruments than bank intermediation; but how and why we get there is a mystery.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Based Debt End Equity Instrument Intermediate Market More Mystery
Eventually the banking systems of all advanced economies reach magnitudes of 500 percent,
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Advance All Bank Economic Eventually Magnitude Percent Raech System
Absent significant regulatory or tax changes, and a sharp transition could be disruptive.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Absent Change Disruptive Regulatory Sharp Significant Transition
The basic aggregate measure of gearing or leverage is telling us that today’s advanced economies’ operating systems are more heavily dependent on private sector credit than anything we have ever seen before.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Aggregate Credit Depend Economic Measure Private Sector System Tell Today
And we have never observed modern finance-capitalist systems operating over a sustained period at this kind of credit-to-GDP leverage ratio.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Capitalist Credit Finance GDP Leverage Modern Observe Operate Period
If we have moved back to a regime of regular financial crises – like the one we had from the 1870s to the 1930s.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Crise Financial Move Regime Regular Since Year
In the immediate postwar era, financial crises in advanced countries were rare events, and before 1970 did not happen at all.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Advance All Before Country Era Event Financial Happen Immediate
Non-trivial understanding of the financial sector, credit, and the banking system.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Bank Credit Financial Non Sector System Trivial Understanding
Then our economic future will be very different from our recent past.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Different Economic Future Past Recent
It’s just very hard to teach a class of students about what has happened in the Global Financial Crisis.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Class Crisis Finance Global Happen Hard Student Very
A possibility is that we see more and more leverage, and credit-to-GDP ratios rise once more to even higher levels.
ALAN M. TAYLOR

Credit Higher Level Leverage More Possible Ratiom Gdp

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