But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?
ALAN GREENSPANThere are no easy choices. Easy choices are long gone.
More Alan Greenspan Quotes
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And whatever their publicized angst over Saddam Hussein’s ‘weapons of mass destruction.
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People dont realize that we cannot forecast the future. What we can do is have probabilities of what causes what, but thats as far as we go. And Ive had a very successful career as a forecaster, starting in 1948 forward.
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What we have found over the years in the marketplace is that derivatives have been an extraordinarily useful vehicle to transfer risk from those who shouldn’t be taking it to those who are willing to and are capable of doing so.
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I came to a stark realization: chronic surpluses could be almost as destabilizing as chronic deficits.
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Regulators have not been able to achieve the level of future clarity required to act pre-emptively.
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I’ve always argued that this country has benefited immensely from the fact that we draw people from all over the world.
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In the process we have created [a] privileged elite whose incomes are being supported at non-competitively high levels by immigration quotas on skilled professionals.
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I have one other issue I’d like to throw on the table. I hesitate to do it, but let me tell you some of the issues that are involved here.
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Remember what we’re looking at. Gold is a currency. It is still, by all evidence, a premier currency, that no fiat currency, including the dollar, can match.
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If I say something which you understand fully in this regard, I probably made a mistake.
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In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value.
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The need for values is inbred. Their content is not.
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If we allow terrorism to undermine our freedom of action, we could reverse at least part of the palpable gains achieved by postwar globalization. It is incumbent upon us not to allow that to happen.
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Many of those who purchased their residence more than a year ago have equity buffers in their homes adequate to withstand any price decline other than a very deep one.
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It is regrettably the way human nature functions, whether we like it or not. What successful economies do is keep it to a minimum.
ALAN GREENSPAN