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History cannot be reduced to a set of statistics and probabilities.

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History Probability Reduce Set Statics

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Marilyn Monroe Paulo Coelho Abraham Lincoln C. S. Lewis Khalil Gibran Charlie Chaplin Gautama Buddha Isaac Newton

Such caution seems especially warranted with regard to the sharp rise in equity prices during the past two years. These gains have obviously raised questions of sustainability.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Caution During Especially Past Price Regard Rise Sharp Two Warranted Year
The United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print money to do that. So there is zero probability of default.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Always Debt Default Money Print Probability States United
By far the most significant event in finance during the past decade has been the extraordinary development and expansion of financial derivatives.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Decade Development During Event Expansion Extraordinary Far Finance Most Significant
Gold, unlike all other commodities, is a currency…and the major thrust in the demand for gold is not for jewelry.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Commodity Currency Demand God Gold Jewelry Thrust Unlike
The worst have failed; investors no longer fund them and are not likely to in the future.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Fail Future Investor Likely Longer Worst
The Iraq War is largely about oil.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Country Largely Oil War
Any onset of increased investor caution elevates risk premiums and, as a consequence, lowers asset values and promotes the liquidation of the debt that supported higher asset prices.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Asset Caution Consequence Debt Elevate Increase Investor Lowe Onset Premium Price Risk Value
If we allow terrorism to undermine our freedom of action, we could reverse at least part of the palpable gains achieved by postwar globalization. It is incumbent upon us not to allow that to happen.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Action Allow Freedom Terrorism Undermine
It signals problems with respect to currency markets. Central banks should pay attention to it.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Attention Bank Central Currency Market Problem Respect Signal
I have one other issue I’d like to throw on the table. I hesitate to do it, but let me tell you some of the issues that are involved here.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Hesitate Issue Other Some Table Throw
In an economy that already has lost some momentum, one must remain alert to the possibility that greater caution and weakening asset values in financial markets could signal or precipitate an excessive softening in household and business spending.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Already Asset Business Caution Economy Great Lost Momentum Must Possibly Predictable Remain Spend Weakness
But rules cannot substitute for character.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Character Rule Substitute
Need to consider not only the most likely future path for the economy but also the distribution of possible outcomes about that path.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Consider Distribution Economy Future Likely Outcome Path Possible
An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Almost Antagonism Gold Issue Persuasion Standard Towards Unite
We cannot rule out a situation in which a preemptive policy tightening becomes necessary.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Necessary Out Policy Preëmptive Rule Situation Tight
I do not deny that many appear to have succeeded in a material way by cutting corners and by manipulating associates, both in their professional and in their personal lives.
ALAN GREENSPAN

Appear Corner Cut Deny Manipulate Material Succeeded

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