What everyone underestimated was the acute unpopularity of the Taliban, even in the Pashtun areas.
AHMED RASHIDWe never had reports of Mullah Omar living luxuriously or making money in large quantities or anything like that.
More Ahmed Rashid Quotes
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In my view, the Western model of influencing the development of third world countries is doomed to failure.
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The problem right now, which I’ve been pointing out very bluntly to American officials in Washington, is that the U.S. has no economic presence in Afghanistan.
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Russia is now becoming increasingly nervous about a more permanent U.S. presence in Central Asia.
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They built that electricity powerhouse,” because nothing has been built so far.
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The fact that there are no longer large units of Al Qaeda running around means you don’t need B-52s.
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You need intelligence and special forces. And, most importantly, you need to resurrect Afghanistan from what is literally the graveyard of countries and transform it into a normal country, which the Afghans want.
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The West does not understand how to deal with states that no longer have any authority and are threatened by dissolution. Their efforts failed in Iraq as well as Afghanistan.
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And China is not keen that the U.S. should be so close to its borders over a long period of time. Certainly, if the U.S. is going to be there for a long time, it’s going to exacerbate regional tensions.
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But all development programs of the United States and the European countries unfortunately exclude the private sector, which could make investments based on profitability.
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They are simply not capable of promoting the indigenous economy. Many billions of dollars flooded into Afghanistan, but without any significant effect.
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There will not be enough soldiers to ensure the security of the country. But will the US still be permitted to kill terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan with un-manned drones? That could worsen the situation in the neighboring states and they could view Afghanistan as a threat.
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Our Pakistan elites are spoiled by permanent foreign aid and therefore find it difficult to change course. Pakistan needs someone who stands up and says: Fundamentalism is bad, capitalism is good.
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The biggest mistake Barack Obama could have made is to change quite a few things in his Afghanistan policy. He increased the number of troops and at the same time set the US withdrawal date to 2014.
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Now the United States has to ensure that Afghanistan does not immediately collapse after being left to itself in 2014.
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There is no way the Americans are going to be able to carry out a full scale war against Iraq and at the same time maintain the same kind of pressure on the Al Qaeda network in countries as diverse as Indonesia, Philippines, and Pakistan, as well as in Europe.
AHMED RASHID